Lost the chance to earn in stock markets during July? Strong August expiry rollovers can still help you make money!

Fresh long buildup activity from the stronger hands with market-wide rollovers on FY18 highs are indicating a positive bias for the markets in the August series

Jul 27, 2018 02:07 IST IIFL Jayesh Bhanushali |

Market-at-higher-point
Nifty ended the July series on record highs backed by across the board buying in the large-cap stocks. NSE's benchmark index outperformed the Nifty Bank index by ~1.5% on an eoe basis for the second series in the row, with both indices posting 5.5%/4.1% gains. Long delta positions in the index options were the flavour of the series. 

The trend of placing contra bets continued in the July series with FIIs pulling out ~Rs3,850cr and DIIs pumping in ~Rs3,700cr into Indian equities. This is the lowest figure since March 2018. FIIs changed their stance on the index as their speculative index future long/short ratio remained above 1x levels throughout the series, favouring the bulls. On the expiry day trading session, FIIs also resumed their buying spree in the cash market segment by posting a buying figure to the tune of ~2453cr.

Rollovers of Nifty/Bank Nifty stood at 74%/78% (2.17cr/23.3 lakh shares) as against 64%/72% (1.92cr/19.6 lakh shares). Market-wide rollovers stood at 90% (highest in FY18) vs. 84% in the previous month.  

Rollovers for Nifty & Bank Nifty were higher in terms of percentage & total open interest (number of open positions) vis-à-vis last month as well as the average of the last three months, indicating a buildup of long positions in both indices.  

On the options front, the August series will start on a very low open position base, with the maximum open interest in 'put' options at 11,000 strike (3.25mn shares) and the maximum open interest in 'call' options at 11,500 strike (2.9mn shares).

As the August expiry is expected to remain volatile on account of lack of open positions i.e. no major option writing in the index options, the following is the list of positions which traders rolled over for the August F&O series:


Stocks in which traders have rolled over their long positions:


Script % Price Chg(eoe) %OI change (eoe) No of  Shr Rolled (lk) % Rollover % Rollover cost % Chg Rollover vs 3 Mnt Avg % Chg Coc vs 3 Mnt Avg View
BANKNIFTY 4% 19% 23.3 78% 0.20 1% 0.52 Long Buildup
NIFTY 6% 13% 217.4 74% 0.35 7% 0.43 Long Buildup
EXIDEIND 10% 15% 86.4 85% 0.55 3% 0.02 Long Buildup
TATAELXSI 13% 44% 16.7 87% 0.58 5% 0.36 Long Buildup
BAJFINANCE 17% 5% 50.9 85% 0.85 2% 0.19 Long Buildup
HDFC 8% 5% 244.7 88% 0.80 3% 0.53 Long Buildup
HDFCBANK 3% 2% 197.1 80% 0.21 2% 0.72 Long Buildup
 
Stocks in which traders have not rolled over their long positions:


Script % Price Chg(eoe) %OI change (eoe) No of  Shr Rolled (lk) % Rollover % Rollover cost % Chg Rollover vs 3 Mnt Avg % Chg Coc vs 3 Mnt Avg View
HINDZINC -1% -1% 92.3 76% -1.26 -12% -1.90 Long unwinding
SUNPHARMA -3% -3% 402.2 92% 0.25 0% -0.33 Long unwinding

Stocks in which traders have rolled over their short positions:


Script % Price Chg(eoe) %OI change (eoe) No of  Shr Rolled (lk) % Rollover % Rollover cost % Chg Rollover vs 3 Mnt Avg % Chg Coc vs 3 Mnt Avg View
BEL -4% 9% 335.5 92% 0.50 7% -0.08 Short Buildup
JPASSOCIAT -5% 1% 1846.9 98% 0.66 8% -0.33 Short Buildup
PVR -20% 3% 8.7 94% 0.61 10% -0.06 Short Buildup
LUPIN -9% 17% 116.9 88% 0.22 0% -0.15 Short Buildup
TVSMOTOR -6% 32% 89.7 92% -0.93 5% -0.64 Short Buildup

Stocks in which traders have covered their short positions:


Script % Price Chg(eoe) %OI change (eoe) No of  Shr Rolled (lk) % Rollover % Rollover cost % Chg Rollover vs 3 Mnt Avg % Chg Coc vs 3 Mnt Avg View
INDIACEM 10% -16% 195.8 83% 0.66 -3% 0.08 Short covering
ULTRACEMCO 11% -1% 19.0 81% 0.34 -6% 0.30 Short covering
SRTRANSFIN 8% -14% 36.8 86% 0.56 -6% 0.04 Short covering
IGL 21% -47% 33.6 70% 0.51 -9% 0.10 Short covering
CEATLTD 9% -16% 13.7 85% 0.69 -1% 0.42 Short covering
 

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